My Hall of Fame Predictions

Happy Hall of Fame Day, everybody! So, what I’m going to do here today is quickly go through the ballot, predict some percentages, offer a few Hock Score thoughts* and prepare for the big night! And it should be a big night; I’d say we’re more or less guaranteed three new Hall of Famers, and there are a couple more right on the borderline—it’s going to be a party!

What I think I will do tonight is put up a Hall of Fame discussion thread at, say, 7 p.m. Eastern. Then I’ll do a video answering your questions and going through the ballot one by one. Hey, why not, let’s try it!

*Just as a reminder, the “Hock Score” comes from my friend Jonathan Hock—we did the Hall of Fame movie “Generations of the Game” together!—who asks us to ponder what percentage of Hall of Fame visitors might stop and gaze and reminisce and take a photograph at a specific player’s Hall of Fame plaque. My guess is that Babe Ruth has the highest Hock Score, probably in the 90s. My guess is that Joe Kelley has the lowest Hock Score, somewhere close to zero, because he’s the least famous of the three Kellys in the Hall (plus one Kell), and unless you’re in the John Thorn Baseball Club, you have absolutely no idea who he is or why he’s in the Hall of Fame.

OK, so here are my Hall of Fame predictions, in order:

Will Be Elected

Adrián Beltré

Predicted percentage: 97-99%
Did I vote for him?: Of course

Beltré’s Hock Score, I think, will be pretty high, because, you know, who doesn’t love Adrián Beltré? I mean, seriously, how will any baseball fan pass Beltré’s plaque without thinking about the time he pulled over the on-deck circle, or the way he hated whenever someone tried to touch his head, or one of the half-million dazzling defensive plays he made at third base. I’ll put his Hock score in the upper 30s, which is really high. There are 342 plaques in the Hall. You can’t stop for all of them.